A Case for Change; the Rio Grande National Forest
9/17/2024
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The “Wildfire and Forest Innovation Summit” was held in Denver, Colorado on 1-2 November 2023 (Denver Museum, 2023). Attendance was by invitation only and 175 foresters, managers, scientists, NGO representatives, business executives, health officials, attorneys, government officials, and especially USDA officials were invited. About 150 invitees were in attendance for the 2-day conference featuring 43 speakers. The conference was hosted by the USDA Forest Service, Forest Trends, the Denver Museum of Nature and Science and the Colorado Department of Resources. Sponsors were the Colorado Form, Colorado Forest Service, and the Gates Family Foundation.
The challenge and goals of the conference were expressed in the welcome statement in the program.
“Wildfires in Colorado are reaching crisis proportions. Megafires caused by drought, past practices of fire suppression and exacerbated by an expanding wildland urban interface are no longer an occasional occurrence, but the new reality. This situation impacts all of us and threatens the values we hold dear as Coloradans: our clean air, water supplies, infrastructure, recreation, and scenic beauty—all of which contribute to our outstanding quality of life.
But there are solutions. We can reduce the risk of catastrophic fires by restoring forests to their natural condition through forest thinning and prescribed fire over time in a mosaic pattern. The USDA Forest Service’s Wildfire Crisis Strategy has prioritized the Front Range and is bringing new, one-time, financial resources to the table. But to deliver long-term solutions at scale we must use this window of opportunity to develop innovative approaches, coalitions, and sustainable funding sources to do the long-term work of wildfire risk reduction. Together, we will identify new innovative business opportunities that will help protect Colorado and preserve the essential values that forests provide” (Denver Museum, 2023).
To put the Colorado and USDA concern in perspective consider that the wildfire season is 365 days per year. Losses from the Marshall, Colorado wildfire were placed at $2 billion.
“The Marshall Fire destroyed or damaged more than 1,000 homes and dozens of commercial structures, burned over 6,000 acres, and deeply affected the lives of thousands of Boulder County residents. Tragically, the fire also caused the deaths of 91-year-old Edna Nadine Turnbull, 69-year-old Robert Sharpe, and a considerable number of pets. The Marshall Fire was unlike any other wildfire in the history of Colorado in terms of impact on urban areas and the devastation caused (Dougherty and Johnson, 2023).
Half of the population of Colorado of 6 million lives in a potential wildfire area and are continually at risk. Wildlife losses include not only natural resources but also human lives, livestock, homes, ranches, businesses, and health. The US Forest Service needs to treat 3 million acres per year to improve the health of the forest. Front Range photos taken from about 1900 to 1936 revel patches of timber lands interspersed with meadows. These healthy forests had little to no ground-level fuel. The healthy forests benefited from low to moderate fires occurring at about 10-to-15-year intervals. Most of the wildfires at that time were ignited by lightning strikes. Photos of the same areas today depict an unhealthy forest with dense ground-cover fuel, small trees providing a ladder for ground fires to move into the upper forest canopy and no open meadows.
Participants of the Denver conference expressed the need to remove ground-based fuels in a 1- to 5-mile-wide strip along the 300-mile-long Front Range to reduce the threat and impact of forest-based wildfires. The costs of such a program were projected to be $1-to $2 billion per mile width of the 300-mile-long strip. Funding for such a massive program would require support of local, state and federal agencies and from businesses including insurances companies, developers, construction companies, entrainers, tourists’ companies, motels, hotels, as well as every little mom and pop establishment on the Front Range and certainly homeowners. These entities must come together in self-interest to protect themselves and their community.
Wildfires are not restricted to US National Forests. In 1988 a wildfire in Yellowstone National Park burned 793,880 acres. This year, 2024, wildfires in the Texas Panhandle and western Oklahoma burned over 1.3 million acres of rangeland in the first week, 500 homes, fences, barns, vehicles, farm, and ranch equipment and took two lives, 83-year-old Joyce Blankenship and 44-year-old Cindy Owen. Residents in 60 counties were directly affected but millions of others were affected by smoke from the wildfires.
The Joint Economic of the US Senate reported the total cost of wildfires in the United States ranged between $394 billion and $893 billion (JEC, 2023). With the US population of 339 million in 2023 the losses from wildfire were $1,162 to $2,474 per person. These losses included property damage, direct and indirect deaths and injuries, health impacts from smoke, watershed pollution, and multiple other factors. These other factors included:
“—-diminished real estate values, lost income, damage to watersheds and aquifers, insurance payouts, timber loss, property and infrastructure damage, electricity costs, evacuation costs, federal wildfire suppression costs, school; and learning losses related to wildfires, insurance premium increases, and tourism loss. The health costs of wildfires accounted for in this analysis include direct deaths and injuries from wildfires, costs from short and long-term exposure to wildfire smoke, and psychological costs.
The total cost estimates in this report should be viewed as a likely undercount of the true total cost, as there are several costs connected to wildfires that have not yet been fully quantified by researchers. These additional costs include how post-fire erosion harms agriculture and makes mudslides and flooding more likely; post-wildfire rehabilitation costs to help burn scars and other parts of the ecosystem recover; and the costs of managed retreat when certain areas become too wildfire prone to live in. Including these costs would push the total cost estimates even higher. Climate change is also likely to increase many of these costs going forward, as wildfires burn longer and produce more smoke, which would further enlarge the total costs of fires” (JEC, 2023). The smoke related costs of wildfires were estimated to be $202.5 million for the U.S. population or $597 per person.
What do these figures mean for the San Luis Valley with a 2020 population of 46,108? The per capita cost of $597 from smoke damage equals ($597 x 46,108) $27,526,476. Using the national range of $1,162 to $2,474 per capita as the economic costs and dangers from wildfires, the calculated figures for the SLV are ($1,162 x 46,108) $53,577,496 and ($2,474 x 46,108) $114,071,192.
These figures may seem interesting but have little meaning for most SLV residents. However, they do have value when trying to develop regional, state, and national support to reduce the impact and severity of wildfires. The 1.8 million acres of the Rio Grande National Forest (RGNF) contains a lot of fuel that could support extensive wildfires. One innovative proposal presented at the Denver conference by Tom Hobby, CEO, Yosemite Clean Energy was to use biomass feedstock to produce carbon-neutral renewable energy products.
Yosemite Clean Energy and SEED Park have successfully developed and executed a Memorandum of Understanding to facilitate the construction and operation of a 50-MWth biomass gasification plant dedicated to the production of renewable hydrogen and renewable natural gas. This state-of-the-art facility will be strategically located in the picturesque San Luis Valley (SLV) of Colorado, with its feedstock sourced from local forests, sawmills, and other residues. The paramount objective in sourcing feedstock is to mitigate the ever-present threat of wildfires, thus contributing to a healthier and more resilient environment. Furthermore, this initiative is expected to invigorate economic development through biomass sourcing, in-plant operations, and the transportation of products from the facility.
Yosemite’s innovative production facility will harness proven Austrian-based gasification technology to manufacture carbon-negative green fuels at a commercial scale. This technology’s reliability has been demonstrated through over 100,000 hours (about 11 and a half years) of operational success in facilities across Europe, Japan, and South Korea. The San Luis Valley plant is projected to yield approximately 31,000 kg (about 68,343.22 lb.) of renewable natural gas and 12,200 kg (about 26,896.36 lb.) of green hydrogen per day. Depending on market conditions, Yosemite may opt to produce 100% hydrogen at the production plant, guided by the best-suited production process and market opportunities that maximize the long-term value of wood resources. As of now, the first Yosemite plant is under development in Oroville, California, with five additional California-based plants in various stages of planning.
The estimated cost of this plant is $280-$300 million. Yosemite has actively engaged with debt and equity investors who are eager to explore new energy transition opportunities. The inclusion of local equity funding will ensure local involvement and the direct flow of economic benefits into the SLV community. SEED will explore local funding avenues and participate in grants alongside Yosemite, thus lending support to project permitting and fostering collaboration with local, regional, and state-level stakeholders.
A 50-MWt plant will require approximately 300 bone-dry tons of feedstock per day. That is an average of fifteen truck loads per day totaling 100,000 tons per year over a 333-day period. The projected yield from forest stewardship and restoration is 30 bone-dry tons per acre requiring up to 10 acres per day or approximately 3,300 acres of fuel treatments per year. Reducing wildfire risks to 3,300 acres per year would require 545 years to cover the 1.8 million acres of the RGNF. Annually, at 3,300 acres per year the plant could potentially reduce hazardous fuels on 0.183% of the RGNF. Over time, and with strategic planning by USFS staff, state and local and fuel hazard experts, the project will work to prioritize removing hazardous fuels in the San Luis Valley region.
A project of this scope could not be undertaken, nor financed, without a clear assessment of feedstock availability. Any feedstock taken from the RGNF would be taken in accordance with established management plans for the forest and would be from high-risk buffer zones around structures, roadways, and fire lanes. The first step in a project of this scope is to develop a GIS analysis of the forest with all layers now available from the RGNF and new layers as appropriate. These layers are expected to include elevation, slope, protected areas, structures, roadways, fire lanes, areas with threatened and endangered species and an updated map of the forest resources.
If the message of the Denver conference is to be implemented in all National forests and especially the RGNF significant changes will be made. A proposal for biomass removal as presented here is a small first step. Forest Service personnel and the public have been brought up believing in Smokey the Bear and the motto “Only you can prevent forest fires.” This belief has been at the heart of forest management for generations. In 1944 the fictional Smokey the Bear was created to publicize the fire suppression campaign of the National Forest. In 1947 the motto “Only you can prevent forest fires” was developed. In 1950 a small cub was rescued from a wildfire in New Mexico and became the living Smokey the Bear, idolized by children and their parents throughout the nation. This history, and anti-fire tradition, may be the biggest obstacle to overcome to implement change within the US National Forest and in the eyes of the public.
Change is coming. In June 2021 a wildfire, now known as the Telegraph Fire, in and around the Tonto National Forest of Arizonia expanded rapidly and created its own wind to further expand the fire front. Experienced firefighters recognized this fire as one of the largest in Arizonia history, encompassing 700 square kilometers of land. The fire became a “…running canopy fire, where it was killing about 60 to 70 percent of the trees that it had encountered, (compared)1 to a (low intensity)1 creeping ground fire, where it was killing about 1 percent of the trees encountered” (Ogasa, 2024). The crown fire was dropped to a ground fire when it reached an area that had burned 4 years earlier, the Pinal Fire. Firefighters allowed the Pinal fire to burn to clear out litter, seedlings, and other ground cover. The Pinal Fire of 2017 removed fuel to limit the Telegraph Fire of 2021.
The USFS recognized the value of controlled ground fires to prevent or limit the incidence of larger more destructive crown fires. The Pinal Fire was allowed to burn in accordance with a new wildfire management plan based on potential operational delineations. “PODs section the landscape into zones within which fires can feasibly be contained. The boundaries are determined before the fire season starts by a mixture of artificial intelligence and local knowledge. A POD network can help land managers identify opportunities to harness wildfires that ignite under manageable conditions. The hope is that if subsequent fires erupt amid extreme conditions, there will be less brush available to fuel their fury” (Ogasa, 2024).
1-inserted into quote to improve clarity
An analysis of 20 years of fire data from 124,186 square kilometers (about half the area of Colorado) of forests in California provided evidence that low-intensity fires reduced the risks of high-intensity fires by 64% in conifer forest (Sverdrup and Wagner, 2023). Prescribed burns, managed wildfires and mechanical removal of ground-based fuels are the recognized tools proven available to address the societal impacts of wildfires.
Discussions and research with U.S Forest Service personnel provided a timeline analysis of recent environmental impacts affecting the Rio Grande National Forest. In 2005, spruce bark beetles killed every mature spruce tree 3 inches or greater in diameter. Spruce trees occupy 52% of the 1.8 million acres of the RGNF. These dead trees with their red needles were ready fuel for four lightning-ignited wildfires in 2013. These four fires were known as the West Fork Complex and consumed 136,000 acres. This huge fire prompted the local community and the FS to form a collaborative group to address the emergent aspects of the fire and subsequent watershed protection interest. This group, 9/16/2024the Rio Grande Watershed Emergency Action Team (RWEACT), archived all their efforts and products on their website https://www.bing.com.
One of the RWEACT products was a white paper “Community Watershed and Biomass Opportunities Evaluation.” This paper provided an Initial Biomass Inventory for the RGNF. This initial inventory was purposely constrained to minimize the need for creation of new disturbances from road building and wide-scale normal logging operations across a large landscape. The inventory is limited to everything within a quarter mile of the existing road system in the spruce-fir zone, excluding riparian and steep areas and other exclusion areas including lynx analysis units (LAUs).
The dead spruce trees degraded over time and their value to the forest industry declined precipitously. By 2019, despite a large acreage of NEPA clearances performed by the RGNF to facilitate anticipated salvage timber sales, no bids were received for salvaged timber. The unsold timber was added to the biomass inventory. The inventory available today is conservatively estimated to be 1,396,156 tons. This huge inventory could provide 100 tons of biomass per day, 365 days per year for 38.6 years. Several entities have expressed
interest in investing in the San Luis Valley but to date no visible action has been taken.
At the Denver conference Dan Dallas, long-time Rio Grande National Forest Supervisor, said we now need Smokey 2.0. This new Smokey would support forest fuel treatments to reduce hazardous fuels, and then, have a torch in one paw and a diesel drip can in the other igniting control burns as a follow up to thinning and reintroducing healthy fire on the landscape to improve forest health. These are the changes now facing the RGNF and a POD-based program to remove a small amount of biomass for conversion into renewable fuel is in the best interest of the forest, the SLV, Colorado and the Nation.
Citations
Denver Museum, 2023. Wildfire and Forests Innovation Summit, Denver Museum of Nature & Science, 1-2 November 2023, 36 pp.
Dougherty and Johnson, 2023. Marshall Fire Investigative Summary and Review, June 8, 2023, 18 pp.
https://assets.bouldercounty.gov/wp-content/uploads/2023/06/marshall-fire-investigative-summary.pdf.
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JEC, 2023. Climate-Exacerbated Wildfires cost the U.S. between $394 to $893 billion each year in economic costs and damages. JEC Report on Total Costs of Wildfires. Pdf (198.5 KBs) 10 December 2023.
Ogasa, N. 2024. Fighting Fire with Fire. Science News 2305 (8), 22-27.
Sverdurp, E. and S. Wagner, 2023. Low-intensity fires mitigate the risk of high-intensity wildfires in California’s forests. Science Advances 9 (45); 11pp.
Nick C. Parker, Ph.D.
V.P. SEED Park International
806 786 0925